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Forecasting

ImportantForecasts are created with a 95% confidence level. For this reason, initial predictions that are based on a small number of data points are created with larger upper and lower limits of possible values. As more data is collected, the prediction is recreated, producing a more precise prediction with narrower limits over time.
Storage

Storage forecasting predicts when your system's storage capacity will be reached based on historical HCP data. A Bayesian time series model incorporates weekly and monthly season patterns to predict future storage usage, with a confidence band attached to it. A new storage forecast is generated once a day.

For every source you enable Storage forecasting on, the Monitor App shows a graph of the storage usage, along with the following information:

  • Capacity: The maximum amount of storage in a system
  • Confidence: The degree of certainty that the actual storage used on a future date will be within the confidence band's range.
  • Days Remaining: An estimation of the amount of days left until the storage capacity is reached. This estimate is based on the date that the confidence band and the capacity level intersect on the graph. Your system is expected to run out of storage after that date.

To see the forecast for a system, click the Analytics window and select the source.

SSD Health

The SSD Health forecast predicts when your system's storage capacity will reach a warned state for a failing drive using SSD wear metrics from HCP. When SSD Health is enabled, the Monitor App displays a trend graph of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the SSD drive predicted to reach end-of-life the fastest.

The following information is displayed on your forecast:

  • SSD Remaining: The estimated remaining useful life of the worst-case SSD.
  • SSD Location: The slot and node of the worst-case SSD.
  • SSD Confidence: The degree of certainty regarding the worst-case SSD's RUL.

SSD life expectancy is based on survival analysis. To view the SSD Health forecast for a system, click the Analytics window and select the source.

NoteWhen enabled, your HCM source will need three days to aggregate sufficient data before an SSD Health prediction is made
Economy Storage

The Economy Storage forecast takes advantage of the storage usage value and total storage available value to predict up to a year’s worth of storage needs. Additional to the forecasted values is a confidence interval (also known as a cone of confidence) that extends up to a year.

These forecasts are generated daily and take into account both weekly and monthly seasonal trends to help further articulate their predictions. The data is stored and collected every three minutes and is displayed on the Analytics dashboard.

NoteIf an HCP system does not have any HCP-S data, the metric reports 0 and no forecast is generated.

The following information is displayed on your forecast:

  • Days Remaining: Estimated days until capacity is reached.
  • Capacity: Total storage capacity.
  • Confidence: The degree of certainty that the actual storage used will fall within the estimates.
ImportantA reliable forecast is only provided after enabling and running Forecasting for one week.

 

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